Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 12.139847 14.174392 16.396911 18.998667 21.954170 25.200300 29.028458
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.769668 11.485108 14.748639 18.930109 24.112566 30.289539 38.170191
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.373565 9.250082 13.010743 18.218479 25.162983 34.014923 46.046370
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 4.815711 7.667071 11.684399 17.636788 26.085426 37.476952 53.788253
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.909602 6.757827 11.042804 17.772392 27.841996 42.069324 63.331857
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.144615 5.878215 10.252653 17.503221 28.887280 45.662750 71.705205
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.781102 5.561473 10.251120 18.384113 31.673119 51.941792 84.392139
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.394928 5.118698 9.955051 18.716447 33.586145 57.013620 95.616776
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.039357 4.654346 9.536385 18.760410 34.991990 61.360183 105.995665
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.747474 4.250371 9.153792 18.795404 36.347817 65.685175 116.597260
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.658690 4.246329 9.514184 20.203461 40.186075 74.330232 134.729264
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.525386 4.117581 9.606883 21.107678 43.190103 81.765059 151.315294
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.383701 3.950979 9.617499 21.891633 46.118432 89.408306 168.990427
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.178658 3.588896 9.164448 21.700908 47.215733 93.959141 181.738588
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.960927 3.139829 8.443829 20.857308 46.958407 96.050405 190.318351
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.791871 2.774391 7.846900 20.187130 46.955193 98.573577 199.796997
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.694098 2.584660 7.634751 20.333833 48.616953 104.313434 215.469560
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.589092 2.343191 7.249887 20.028816 49.289986 108.188168 227.897048
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.553498 2.313126 7.406624 21.018576 52.824194 117.868723 251.821403
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.497404 2.198602 7.316210 21.391779 55.026309 125.025647 271.280079
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.437001 2.050850 7.107442 21.441055 56.500702 130.799585 288.365343
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.384171 1.914293 6.905858 21.480331 57.948828 136.601562 305.812795
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.379935 1.966405 7.274491 23.061777 63.125298 150.471743 340.051961